Streaming a severe storm ‘LIVE’ in Falls County moving towards Robertson County.  Check it out at vortexchasers.tv.

Vortex Chasers is currently out in the field and streaming live.   Check out the stream under the “live video” tab located on our website.

Aaron Dooley is currently chasing a Tornado south of the Childress area.

00Z run still has me very interested in the Childress area (40 miles radius or so) for Thursday.

Looking on the positive side:

Surface dewpoint: 65-70
850 dewpoint: 15-18C
SB CAPE: 2500+
0-1 EHI: 1.50-1.75
0-3 EHI: 5.00-6.00
CIN: All but gone by 00Z
LI: -6 to -7
LCL: 750-250
0-1 SRH: 125-150
0-3 SRH: 250
Surface to 500MB Shear: 60 knots~
Storm motion: 15 knots out of the SW

Friday:

System has slowed down even further according to the NAM/WRF. Dryline west of 35 by 00Z.

Models are having problems breaking out precipitation but I am not concerned and think it will happen. I see 3-4 main areas that hold potential for this day. The first is north and south of the Red River along and west of I-35. The second is in central Kansas along the dryline again roughly aligned with I-35. The third and possibly most promising is in NE KS, SE NE, and into NW MO along the lifting warm front. Fourth and conditionally with enough dryline movement I think the area just north of Del Rio from 00Z to 06Z could produce big storms with more than enough tornadic potential. I have included two graphics showing the SKEW-T and Hodograph for that area below. I see a stout capping inversion BUT the models are showing precip breaking out. Indeed, this is something I will be watching in future runs.

Saturday:

Depending on timing could still be a Texas setup going off the NAM/WRF. GFS is still looking a bit too progressive and taking the system into LA/AR. It appears ATTM that there will be an ongoing mesoscale convective complex ongoing from late Friday night into Saturday morning over west-central and north Texas as well as southern OK per the NAM/WRF. I can only see to 12Z ATTM but Saturday, if it slows down enough may be a shot in east-central TX to Far east TX. It appears that shear and CAPE will be in place(still) and may actually be the best shear of the 3 days. I expect to hear retort from you all on this since I am coming out strong on this system. I feel really good about this one, at least good relative to the last 45 days.

-Dooley