Severe Wx April 22-24
Written on April 21, 2010 at 12:12 am, by Adam Cuker
00Z run still has me very interested in the Childress area (40 miles radius or so) for Thursday.
Looking on the positive side:
Surface dewpoint: 65-70
850 dewpoint: 15-18C
SB CAPE: 2500+
0-1 EHI: 1.50-1.75
0-3 EHI: 5.00-6.00
CIN: All but gone by 00Z
LI: -6 to -7
0-1 SRH: 125-150
0-3 SRH: 250
Surface to 500MB Shear: 60 knots~
Storm motion: 15 knots out of the SW
System has slowed down even further according to the NAM/WRF. Dryline west of 35 by 00Z.
Models are having problems breaking out precipitation but I am not concerned and think it will happen. I see 3-4 main areas that hold potential for this day. The first is north and south of the Red River along and west of I-35. The second is in central Kansas along the dryline again roughly aligned with I-35. The third and possibly most promising is in NE KS, SE NE, and into NW MO along the lifting warm front. Fourth and conditionally with enough dryline movement I think the area just north of Del Rio from 00Z to 06Z could produce big storms with more than enough tornadic potential. I have included two graphics showing the SKEW-T and Hodograph for that area below. I see a stout capping inversion BUT the models are showing precip breaking out. Indeed, this is something I will be watching in future runs.
Depending on timing could still be a Texas setup going off the NAM/WRF. GFS is still looking a bit too progressive and taking the system into LA/AR. It appears ATTM that there will be an ongoing mesoscale convective complex ongoing from late Friday night into Saturday morning over west-central and north Texas as well as southern OK per the NAM/WRF. I can only see to 12Z ATTM but Saturday, if it slows down enough may be a shot in east-central TX to Far east TX. It appears that shear and CAPE will be in place(still) and may actually be the best shear of the 3 days. I expect to hear retort from you all on this since I am coming out strong on this system. I feel really good about this one, at least good relative to the last 45 days.